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III. Past, present and future

There are actually three time periods that are important to a stock and its price: the past, the present and the future. Both Fundamental and Technical Analyses are focused on the past. The past is only an indicator of what the company has done. The present is what is the price of the stock today. It is what people think the stock is worth at any given time based on fundamentals and technical analysis or recent product or service announcements. The present is even less of a predictor than is the past.

The future is where the money is made. The future is where people think the stock is going to be and ultimately that's all investors need to care about. If you know the future price of a company's stock, you don’t need to know anything about its past or present.

For example, if one were to know that more people rather than less were about to shop at store x over the next month, that information would be very valuable. Retailers spend millions of dollars on market research to try to develop that kind of information. In the stock market, the question is what other investors will do. What is important is the likely behavior of people who invest in stocks is. The Professional Wisdom of Wall Street, as quoted by Forbes Magazine says, "Try to sense investor psychology at all times. More often than not, stocks sell on the basis of what investors think of them at a given time."

Where the Traders Go, So Goes the Market

Stock market pundits like to talk of the market as if it is a living, sentient creature. They speak of it as if it has a mind and a will of its own. They are always trying to predict what it will do next, by examining all sorts of indicators, including the opinions of other experts. But the "mind" of the market is a collective "mind." The "behavior" of the stock market is the sum total of individual buy/sell decisions among traders. Where traders go the stock market goes.

As recently as the late summer of 1998 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 20%, speculation was rampant that investors would cut and run, precipitating a recession. It did not happen. Traders held on and the market has soared to unprecedented heights. That incident underscored the necessity to understand trader psychology in the new market.

The fundamental logic that underlies ePredict.com is that thousands of traders sharing information about what they intend to do will be a useful indicator of how the market as a whole and how specific stocks will behave.

Consumer Surveys are Accurate Predictors

In the larger economy, consumer behavior is destiny. Because consumers spend two out of every three dollars that move in the US economy, what individual consumers do with those dollars is the most determinative factor in the economy. Experts cite all sorts of leading and lagging indicators, but when it comes right down to it, we hear statements like "Consumers are going to have to spend us out of this recession."

Because of the power of consumer spending, surveys of consumers have proven to be an accurate predictor of future economic trends. For example, the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan – which measures consumer attitudes and expectations about the economic conditions – has anticipated every economic downturn since W.W.II.

In the stock market, individual consumers are playing more and more of an influential role in the stock market with the growth of access to information and on-line trading.  Consumers are now in many cases driving the prices of stocks and the market as a whole. Therefore to know what consumers will do is to know what the market and individual stocks will do.

ePredict.com's unique service is not about experts predicting what will happen. It is not about evaluating "economic indicators" that indirectly lead to eventual changes. ePredict.com uses surveys to gather information directly from consumers in the stock market and provides analysis that clearly shows what they intend to do now and in the foreseeable future.

What about the stock price?

As Burton Malkiel states in his acclaimed and widely read investment book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, "Not only does the market change the values it places on the various fundamental determinants of stock prices, but the most important of these fundamentals are themselves liable to change depending on the state of market psychology. Stocks are bought on expectations--not on facts." ePredict.com helps you capitalize on these expectations.

ePredict.com is a unique investment service which measures the behavioral expectations of investors as well as providing extensive fundamental and technical analysis. You can view us an investment club for all investors. Or a quantitative investment service, as opposed to simple qualitative chat rooms that populate the Internet. We provide an information service using systematic polling techniques to improve the odds of predicting the future of certain stocks. Our systematic polling of stock investors will help to improve your odds of choosing stocks successfully in the marketplace and can be of great value in creating return on investments for you the investor. How do we accomplish this?







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